Baccarat has a reputation as a high-roller game, but it's actually one of the simplest in the casino. Better yet, it offers some of the best odds. This guide covers everything you need to play smart.
How Baccarat Works
The Basics
Two hands are dealt: Player and Banker. You bet on which will win, or if they'll tie.
Card values:
- 2-9: Face value
- 10, J, Q, K: 0 points
- Ace: 1 point
Hand value: Add card values, drop the tens digit.
- 7 + 8 = 15 → hand value is 5
- K + 5 = 5 → hand value is 5
- 9 + 9 = 18 → hand value is 8
Natural Wins
If either hand totals 8 or 9 on the first two cards, it's a "natural" and wins immediately (or ties if both are equal).
Drawing Rules
Complex third-card rules determine when hands draw another card. You don't need to memorize these—the dealer handles everything. But understanding them helps:
Player hand:
- 0-5: Draws a card
- 6-7: Stands
- 8-9: Natural (no draw)
Banker hand: Depends on Player's third card (when applicable). The rules favor the Banker slightly, which is why Banker bets have a commission.
The Three Bets
Banker Bet
House edge: 1.06%
The Banker bet wins 50.68% of decided hands. But because it wins more often, casinos charge a 5% commission on Banker wins.
Why it's best: Even with commission, it has the lowest house edge.
Player Bet
House edge: 1.24%
Pays even money. Wins 49.32% of decided hands.
Why it's second best: Only 0.18% worse than Banker, no commission to track.
Tie Bet
House edge: 14.36%
Typically pays 8:1. Ties occur about 9.5% of the time.
Why it's terrible: That 14.36% house edge is one of the worst bets in the casino.
Optimal Baccarat Strategy
The Simple Truth
Bet Banker or Player. Never bet Tie.
That's it. That's optimal baccarat strategy.
Why Banker Is Mathematically Best
Over 1,000 bets:
| Bet | Expected Loss |
|---|---|
| Banker | $10.60 per $1,000 |
| Player | $12.40 per $1,000 |
| Tie | $143.60 per $1,000 |
The difference between Banker and Player is small—about $2 per $1,000 wagered. But the Tie bet costs you 10x more.
Commission Considerations
The 5% commission on Banker wins complicates things slightly:
Standard commission:
- Win $100 on Banker → keep $95
- Must track commission owed
- Usually collected at end of shoe
EZ Baccarat (no commission):
- Banker pays even money
- But Banker 7 vs Player 6 is a push (no win)
- House edge: ~1.02% (slightly better)
Practical Betting Approach
Pure math approach: Always bet Banker.
Alternating approach: Bet Banker and Player based on feel or pattern (no mathematical advantage, but keeps things interesting).
Avoiding streaks: Some players bet opposite the last result. This has no mathematical basis but doesn't hurt much given the small edge difference.
Money Management
Session Bankroll
Baccarat has low variance compared to many games, but you can still swing:
- Minimum: 20-30 bets
- Comfortable: 50 bets
- Conservative: 100 bets
For $25/hand play, bring $500-2,500 depending on session length.
Win/Loss Limits
Set limits before you play:
- "I'll quit if I lose $500"
- "I'll quit if I'm up $200"
This doesn't change expected value but controls session outcomes.
The Opposite of Slots
Unlike slots, baccarat has consistent, predictable house edge. You're unlikely to lose everything quickly or win big. Sessions tend to grind slowly in either direction.
Baccarat Scoreboards and Patterns
The Big Road
Casinos display results showing past outcomes:
- Columns of circles (Banker = red, Player = blue)
- Pattern recognition for superstitious players
Derived Roads
More complex patterns:
- Big Eye Boy
- Small Road
- Cockroach Pig
These track "trends" like choppy vs streaky results.
Do Patterns Matter?
Mathematically: No.
Each hand is independent. Previous results don't affect future outcomes. The cards are reshuffled, and probability resets.
Psychologically: Maybe.
If following patterns makes the game more enjoyable and you're betting Banker/Player anyway, it's harmless entertainment. Just don't bet Tie because a pattern "predicts" it.
Card Counting in Baccarat
Does It Work?
Unlike blackjack, card counting in baccarat provides minimal advantage.
The math:
- Best possible advantage from counting: ~0.5%
- Frequency of favorable situations: Very rare
- Compared to blackjack: Much less valuable
Why It's Not Worth It
A true edge appears perhaps once every several hundred hands. You'd need to bet minimally most of the time, then bet big on rare +EV situations. The hourly profit is negligible compared to effort.
Verdict: Not practical. Just bet Banker.
Baccarat Variations
Mini Baccarat
- Lower stakes
- Faster pace
- Dealer handles all cards
- Same rules and odds
Punto Banco
The most common version worldwide. Standard rules as described above.
Chemin de Fer
- Players take turns banking
- Optional drawing rules
- More interactive
- Rare in American casinos
Baccarat Banque
- Single player banks for entire shoe
- European variation
- Essentially obsolete
No Commission Baccarat
- Banker pays even money
- Specific Banker wins push (usually Banker 7 vs Player 6)
- Slightly lower house edge overall
Dragon Tiger
- Two cards only, no drawing
- Higher or lower card wins
- Faster, simpler, higher house edge
Common Baccarat Myths
"Streaks Are Meaningful"
Eight Banker wins in a row doesn't make Player "due." Each hand has the same probability regardless of history.
"The Tie Is Due After Many Hands"
Tie probability is constant at ~9.5%. A string of non-ties doesn't increase future tie probability.
"Certain Dealers Run Hot or Cold"
Dealers don't control the cards. Shuffling is random. Dealer assignment is irrelevant to outcomes.
"Pattern Systems Can Beat the Game"
No betting pattern changes house edge. Martingale, following trends, opposite betting—all have the same expected loss.
"High Rollers Know Secrets"
High rollers play baccarat because:
- Low house edge suits their bankrolls
- Simple game, no skill required
- Superstition and tradition
- Comps on big action
They don't have secret knowledge.
Baccarat for Beginners
Table Etiquette
Regular baccarat (big table):
- High minimums ($100+)
- Formal atmosphere
- Players may handle cards
- Shoe passes around table
Mini baccarat:
- Lower minimums ($10-25)
- Casual atmosphere
- Dealer handles everything
- Faster pace
Your First Session
- Find a mini-baccarat table at your comfort level
- Buy in for at least 30 bets
- Bet Banker (or Player if you prefer)
- Never bet Tie
- Enjoy the simple, low-edge game
What to Expect
Baccarat sessions tend to be:
- Slow grind: Small wins and losses accumulating
- Low variance: Rarely huge swings
- Relaxing: No decisions to make
- Social: Players often chat and root together
Side Bets
Many baccarat tables offer side bets. Nearly all are terrible:
| Side Bet | House Edge |
|---|---|
| Perfect Pair | ~10-11% |
| Either Pair | ~10-11% |
| Big/Small | ~4-5% |
| Dragon Bonus | ~2-10% |
| Tie (standard) | ~14.4% |
| Super 6 | ~12% |
Recommendation: Avoid all side bets. Stick to Banker/Player.
Why Casinos Still Offer Baccarat
With just 1.06% house edge, why do casinos love baccarat?
Volume: High rollers bet thousands per hand. 1% of $10,000 is $100.
Speed: Mini-baccarat deals many hands per hour.
Simplicity: No player skill means consistent, predictable house profit.
High-roller attraction: Baccarat tables draw wealthy gamblers who may play other games or use resort amenities.
The Bottom Line
Baccarat is one of the best games in the casino for players:
- Low house edge on main bets
- No skill required
- Simple to play
- Fast and engaging
The entire strategy fits in one sentence: Bet Banker or Player, never bet Tie.
Follow that rule, manage your bankroll sensibly, and enjoy one of the fairest games the casino offers. Just don't expect pattern boards or betting systems to change the math—they never do.