Baccarat Odds & Probability Guide (2025)
Baccarat has some of the best odds in the casino—if you bet correctly. This guide breaks down the mathematics behind every baccarat wager.
Core Probabilities
Standard 8-Deck Baccarat
| Outcome | Probability | Decimal |
|---|---|---|
| Banker wins | 45.86% | 0.4586 |
| Player wins | 44.62% | 0.4462 |
| Tie | 9.52% | 0.0952 |
Note: Banker wins slightly more often due to favorable third-card drawing rules.
House Edge by Bet
| Bet | House Edge | Expected Loss per $100 |
|---|---|---|
| Banker | 1.06% | $1.06 |
| Player | 1.24% | $1.24 |
| Tie (8:1) | 14.36% | $14.36 |
| Tie (9:1) | 4.84% | $4.84 |
Why Banker Has Lower Edge Despite Commission
Without commission, Banker would have a 1.17% player advantage. The 5% commission:
- Applies only to winning Banker bets
- Reduces Banker house edge to 1.06%
- Still leaves Banker as the best bet
Math:
- Banker wins 45.86% of hands
- 5% commission × 45.86% = 2.29% impact
- Net: Banker retains lowest house edge
Detailed Probability Analysis
Natural Outcomes (First Two Cards)
| Result | Probability |
|---|---|
| Player natural 8 | 9.52% |
| Player natural 9 | 9.52% |
| Banker natural 8 | 9.52% |
| Banker natural 9 | 9.52% |
| Both natural (tie possible) | ~4.5% |
Third Card Situations
| Scenario | Probability |
|---|---|
| Neither draws | 14.36% |
| Only Player draws | 31.26% |
| Only Banker draws | 15.36% |
| Both draw | 39.02% |
Deck Composition Effects
Baccarat uses 8 decks (416 cards). Here's how removal affects odds:
| Cards Removed | Effect on Banker Edge |
|---|---|
| High cards (7-9) | Slightly worse |
| Low cards (2-4) | Slightly better |
| Neutral (5-6) | Minimal effect |
Practical impact: Card counting in baccarat yields less than 0.1% edge in ideal conditions—not worth pursuing.
Tie Bet Analysis
Standard 8:1 Payout
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Probability of tie | 9.52% |
| True odds | 9.51:1 |
| Casino pays | 8:1 |
| House edge | 14.36% |
9:1 Payout (Some Casinos)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Probability | 9.52% |
| True odds | 9.51:1 |
| Casino pays | 9:1 |
| House edge | 4.84% |
Verdict: Even at 9:1, Tie has nearly 5x the house edge of Banker. Avoid it.
Commission-Free Baccarat Odds
EZ Baccarat (Dragon 7)
| Bet | House Edge |
|---|---|
| Banker | 1.02% |
| Player | 1.24% |
| Dragon 7 side bet | 7.61% |
Rules: No commission, but Banker 7 vs 3-card Player is push.
Super 6 Baccarat
| Bet | House Edge |
|---|---|
| Banker | 1.46% |
| Player | 1.24% |
| Super 6 side bet | 29.98% |
Rules: No commission, but Banker wins with 6 pay 0.5:1.
Better choice: Standard baccarat with commission (1.06% on Banker)
Side Bet Odds
Common side bets and their house edges:
| Side Bet | House Edge | Avoid? |
|---|---|---|
| Pair (Player or Banker) | 10.36% | Yes |
| Either Pair | 14.54% | Yes |
| Perfect Pair | 13.03% | Yes |
| Big (5-6 cards) | 4.35% | Maybe |
| Small (4 cards) | 5.27% | Maybe |
| Dragon Bonus | 2.65-9.37% | Maybe |
Best side bet: Dragon Bonus on unbalanced outcomes (~2.65% edge in ideal conditions). Still worse than Banker.
Streaks and Patterns
Probability of Consecutive Wins
| Streak | Banker | Player |
|---|---|---|
| 2 in a row | 21.0% | 19.9% |
| 3 in a row | 9.6% | 8.9% |
| 5 in a row | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| 10 in a row | 0.04% | 0.03% |
Reality Check
- Each hand is independent
- Past results don't influence future
- Streaks WILL happen (statistics guarantee it)
- Chasing streaks doesn't change expected value
Comparing Baccarat to Other Games
| Game | Best Bet House Edge |
|---|---|
| Baccarat (Banker) | 1.06% |
| Blackjack (basic strategy) | 0.5% |
| Craps (Pass + odds) | 0.4% |
| Roulette (European) | 2.70% |
| Slots | 2-15% |
Baccarat ranks among the best odds in the casino.
Expected Value Calculations
Per $100 Wagered
| Bet | EV |
|---|---|
| Banker | -$1.06 |
| Player | -$1.24 |
| Tie (8:1) | -$14.36 |
Per Hour (60 hands, $25 bets)
| Strategy | Hourly EV |
|---|---|
| All Banker | -$15.90 |
| All Player | -$18.60 |
| Alternating | -$17.25 |
| Random | ~-$17.25 |
Conclusion: Consistent Banker betting minimizes losses.
Variance and Bankroll
Standard Deviation
Baccarat has relatively low variance:
- Banker bet SD: 0.93 units
- Player bet SD: 0.95 units
- Tie bet SD: 2.64 units
Bankroll Recommendations
For 95% confidence of lasting N hands:
| Hands | Bankroll Needed (units) |
|---|---|
| 100 | 20 |
| 500 | 45 |
| 1000 | 65 |
Related Guides
- Betting strategies: Baccarat Strategy
- Complete rules: Baccarat Guide
Frequently Asked Questions
The Bottom Line
The math is clear: Banker at 1.06% house edge is the only smart bet in baccarat. Player is acceptable at 1.24%. Tie is never worth it. Side bets are entertainment, not strategy.