Baccarat Strategy Guide: Best Bets & Winning Tips (2025)
Baccarat is one of the simplest casino games to play optimally. Unlike blackjack, there are no complex decisions—just choose your bet. This guide explains the mathematically best approach.
The Only Strategy You Need
Always bet Banker.
That's the core strategy. Here's why:
| Bet | House Edge | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Banker | 1.06% | 45.86% |
| Player | 1.24% | 44.62% |
| Tie | 14.36% | 9.52% |
Banker wins more often AND has a lower house edge. The 5% commission on Banker wins is already factored into these numbers.
Why Banker Beats Player
The Third Card Rules Favor Banker
Baccarat's third card rules give Banker a slight mathematical advantage:
- Banker draws last (more information)
- Banker rules are slightly more favorable
- The result: Banker wins 45.86% vs Player's 44.62%
The Commission Makes It Fair
Without the 5% commission, Banker would have a negative house edge (player advantage). The commission balances the game while still leaving Banker as the best bet.
Betting System Strategies
While no system beats the house edge, these can structure your play:
Flat Betting (Recommended)
Bet the same amount every hand on Banker.
Pros:
- Simplest approach
- Lowest variance
- Easy bankroll management
Cons:
- Less exciting for some players
1-3-2-4 System
Progression based on wins:
- Bet 1 unit
- If win, bet 3 units
- If win, bet 2 units
- If win, bet 4 units
- Reset after loss or completing sequence
Example ($10 units):
| Hand | Bet | Result | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $10 | Win | +$10 |
| 2 | $30 | Win | +$40 |
| 3 | $20 | Win | +$60 |
| 4 | $40 | Win | +$100 |
Pros:
- Limits losses on bad streaks
- Capitalizes on winning streaks
- Low risk (max loss = 6 units)
Paroli (Positive Progression)
Double your bet after wins, reset after 3 wins or any loss.
Pros:
- Limits losses
- Big potential on streaks
Cons:
- Streaks are unpredictable
Avoid: Martingale
Doubling after losses is dangerous in baccarat due to:
- Table limits
- Bankroll constraints
- Long losing streaks happen
Bankroll Management
Session Guidelines
| Table Minimum | Recommended Bankroll |
|---|---|
| $25 | $500-750 |
| $50 | $1,000-1,500 |
| $100 | $2,000-3,000 |
Win/Loss Limits
Set these before playing:
- Stop-loss: 50% of session bankroll
- Win goal: 30-50% profit
- Time limit: 2-3 hours maximum
Pattern Tracking: Does It Work?
Many baccarat tables display past results on screens. Players track patterns looking for trends.
The truth: Each hand is independent. Past results do not influence future outcomes.
Why casinos show it: Entertainment value and false confidence keep players at the table longer.
If you enjoy tracking: Do it for fun, not strategy. It has zero predictive value.
Card Counting in Baccarat
Unlike blackjack, card counting is nearly useless in baccarat:
- Edge gained is tiny (0.01-0.1%)
- Requires tracking all 8 decks
- Advantageous situations are rare
- Not worth the effort
The Tie Bet Trap
Never bet Tie.
| Reality Check | Tie Bet |
|---|---|
| House edge | 14.36% |
| Payout | 8:1 or 9:1 |
| True odds | ~10.5:1 |
| Expected loss per $100 | $14.36 |
Some casinos pay 9:1 on ties (reducing edge to ~4.8%), but even then, Banker is better.
Commission-Free Baccarat
Some tables eliminate the 5% commission but change the rules:
Common variation: Banker wins on 6 pay 1:2 (half)
| Version | House Edge |
|---|---|
| Standard Banker (5% commission) | 1.06% |
| No Commission (6 pays half) | 1.46% |
Verdict: Standard baccarat with commission is usually better.
Mini Baccarat vs Big Table
| Aspect | Mini Baccarat | Big Table |
|---|---|---|
| Minimum bet | $10-25 | $100+ |
| Speed | 150+ hands/hour | 40-60 hands/hour |
| Player involvement | None | Players deal cards |
| House edge | Same | Same |
For strategy: They're identical mathematically. Mini is faster (more decisions per hour = more expected loss per hour).
EZ Baccarat
Popular variation with different commission structure:
- No commission on Banker wins
- Banker wins with 7 are a push
- Additional side bets available
House edge: 1.02% on Banker (slightly better than standard)
Common Mistakes
- Betting Tie — 14% house edge is unacceptable
- Chasing patterns — Past results don't predict future
- Switching between Banker/Player — Stick with Banker
- Playing commission-free without understanding rules
- Side bets — Almost always have high house edges
Related Guides
- Understand the math: Baccarat Odds
- Complete rules: Baccarat Guide
Frequently Asked Questions
The Bottom Line
Baccarat strategy is simple: bet Banker every hand, set limits, and walk away when you hit them. The game has one of the lowest house edges in the casino when played correctly. Don't complicate it with patterns, progressions, or side bets.