Advantage play is the practice of using legal techniques to gain an edge over the casino. While most gamblers face a house edge, advantage players flip the script—turning gambling into a potentially profitable activity. Here's how it works.
What Is Advantage Play?
Advantage play uses legal methods to overcome the house edge and create positive expected value (+EV) for the player.
Key characteristics:
- Completely legal (no cheating)
- Based on math and information
- Requires skill and discipline
- Often countered by casinos
- Not guaranteed profit (variance exists)
Common advantage play techniques:
- Card counting (blackjack)
- Hole carding
- Shuffle tracking
- Promotional exploitation
- Video poker progressive hunting
- Sports betting value plays
- Poker (skill game, not house vs. player)
Why Casinos Allow It
Casinos don't "allow" advantage play—they tolerate it because:
Legal protection: Using your brain isn't illegal. Banning intelligent play creates legal issues.
Collateral benefit: For every advantage player, thousands of players lose. Casinos win overall.
Difficulty: True advantage play is hard. Most who try make mistakes that benefit the house.
Countermeasures: Casinos can alter conditions, ban players, and make advantage play unprofitable.
Card Counting
How It Works
Card counting tracks the ratio of high to low cards remaining in a blackjack deck. When high cards are plentiful, players have an advantage.
Basic concept:
- High cards (10, J, Q, K, A) favor the player
- Low cards (2-6) favor the dealer
- Count cards as they're played
- Bet more when count favors you
Expected Edge
With perfect play and good conditions:
- Player edge: 0.5% to 1.5%
In practice:
- Modern conditions reduce this
- Variance is high
- Casino heat limits opportunities
Challenges
- Mentally demanding
- Requires large bankroll
- Subject to casino countermeasures
- Backordered or banned players
Is It Worth It?
For most people: no. The hourly rate, accounting for practice time and risk, is modest. For those who find it intellectually rewarding and have appropriate bankroll, it can be profitable.
Hole Carding
What It Is
Hole carding exploits situations where the dealer accidentally exposes their hidden card.
How it happens:
- Dealer hand/arm position
- Poorly designed tables
- Dealer mistakes
- Specific dealing motions
The Advantage
Knowing the dealer's hole card provides enormous edge:
- 10%+ advantage when you see the card
- Can adjust strategy perfectly
Legality
Looking at accidentally exposed cards: Legal Using devices or collusion: Illegal Signaling to partners: Potentially illegal
Using your eyes to observe publicly visible information is not cheating.
Challenges
- Finding vulnerable dealers is rare
- Positions may not be available
- Casinos can fix the issue easily
- May require team coordination
Shuffle Tracking
What It Is
Tracking groups of cards through shuffles to predict where they'll appear in the next shoe.
Concept:
- Identify clumps of high or low cards
- Follow them through the shuffle
- Bet heavily when tracked clumps appear
Difficulty Level
Shuffle tracking is significantly harder than card counting:
- Requires visual memory
- Must understand shuffle procedures
- Rare opportunities in modern casinos
- Easily countered by shuffling machines
Modern Reality
Continuous shuffling machines and complex shuffle procedures have largely eliminated shuffle tracking opportunities.
Promotional Exploitation
What It Is
Taking advantage of casino promotions to create +EV situations.
Examples:
- Loss rebates that mathematically favor player
- Deposit matches with achievable wagering requirements
- Free play offers with favorable terms
- Drawing promotions with positive expected value
How to Evaluate
Calculate expected value:
- Determine promotion value
- Calculate expected cost to claim it
- If value > cost, it's +EV
Example:
- Promotion: Match first $100 deposit, 10x wagering requirement
- Wagering required: $1,000
- Playing video poker with 99% RTP: Expected loss = $10
- Bonus value: $100 - $10 = $90 profit expected
Challenges
- Casinos catch on and limit players
- Terms often have catches
- Requires significant play volume
- Diminishing opportunities as casinos learn
Video Poker Progressives
The Opportunity
Video poker progressives with high enough jackpots can become +EV:
- Royal flush progressive builds over time
- At certain levels, expected value turns positive
- Skilled players hunt these opportunities
How It Works
Example with 99.5% base return:
- Progressive jackpot adds return
- At breakeven point, game becomes +EV
- Players stake out machines near breakeven
Challenges
- Must play perfectly
- Variance is enormous (royal flush is rare)
- Competition from other advantage players
- Casinos may reset progressives
Sports Betting
Sharp Betting
Finding +EV bets:
- Comparing odds across sportsbooks
- Identifying mispriced lines
- Moving before markets adjust
Required Skills
- Understanding probability
- Line shopping (finding best odds)
- Bankroll management
- Specializing in specific markets
The Reality
Sportsbooks quickly limit winning bettors. Sustainable advantage betting is increasingly difficult as markets become more efficient.
Poker as Advantage Play
Different Model
Poker isn't casino gambling—you play against other players. The house takes a rake but doesn't set the odds.
Your edge comes from:
- Playing better than opponents
- Game selection
- Discipline and bankroll management
The Advantage
Skilled players maintain sustainable edges:
- Live cash games: 5-10 BB/100 hands (good players)
- Online cash games: 2-5 BB/100 hands (good players)
- Tournaments: Positive ROI for skilled players
Challenges
- Competition is tough
- Games have gotten harder
- Requires constant study
- Variance is high
Is Advantage Play Worth It?
Honest Assessment
Pros:
- Mathematically +EV
- Intellectual challenge
- Independence and flexibility
- Potential for profit
Cons:
- Most opportunities have small edges
- High variance
- Casino countermeasures
- Time-intensive
- Stress of potential banning
- Modest hourly rate for most
The Math
Card counting example:
- 1% edge
- $50 average bet
- 80 hands per hour
- Expected hourly: $40
- But variance means losing sessions common
- Risk of being backed off
For most people, a regular job is more reliable.
Who Thrives
Advantage play works for people who:
- Have significant capital
- Enjoy the intellectual challenge
- Handle variance emotionally
- Can maintain discipline
- Accept modest returns
- Don't need the income to live
Who Should Avoid
Advantage play isn't for those who:
- Need consistent income
- Have limited bankroll
- Become emotional about losses
- Lack time for study and practice
- Expect quick riches
Getting Started
If You're Interested
- Learn basic strategy perfectly for your chosen game
- Study advantage techniques from reputable sources
- Practice extensively before risking money
- Start with small stakes to gain experience
- Track everything to verify results
- Expect setbacks as part of learning
Recommended Resources
- Books: Professional blackjack literature, poker training sites
- Forums: Advantage player communities
- Practice: Simulators and free games
- Analysis: Spreadsheets and tracking software
Realistic Expectations
Most advantage players:
- Break even or lose initially
- Take years to become proficient
- Face diminishing opportunities
- Eventually find other pursuits
A few make it work long-term. Most don't.
The Bottom Line
Advantage play is real—you can legally shift odds in your favor. But it's not the easy money movies suggest.
Reality check:
- Edges are small
- Variance is large
- Casinos fight back
- Time investment is significant
- Income is uncertain
If the intellectual challenge appeals and you have appropriate expectations, advantage play offers a unique pursuit. Just don't quit your day job based on counting cards in your basement.